ClimateDebate

During a NGO briefing with the newly elected Danish Climate Minister Lykke Friis, it was announced that the Danish Government has booked Forum in the center of Copenhagen in order to offer the many NGO/IGO representatives which will not be able to enter the Bella Center an alternative option. At Forum there will be live streaming from the plenary sessions.

While this initiative is a nice gesture as opposed to doing nothing, it can not overshadow the fact that the logistics during the COP15 have been poorly organized at its best. This way NGO’s will at least have a common setting from where to continue their meetings and discussions in relation to the ongoing negotiations.

One can however not help feel that the NGO’s once again have been derailed from the political process and there is no doubt that the lack of a NGO presence in the Bella center will hurt the least developed countries the most, as they are highly dependent on the help from NGO’s to prepare and engage in the negotiations with the larger and richer countries.

The “blame-game” is likely to continue between the UN and the Danish Government as the host country. So far Denmark has however been quick to deny all responsibility for the mess. Two points does nonetheless seems evident. Firstly, choosing the Bella Center as the location for the event was an obvious mistake – it is simply too small! And secondly – accrediting five times as many people to enter the conference as it is capable of hosting was an act of logistic madness considering the exceptional circumstances surrounding COP15. It should have been expected that a much higher percentage of the accredited NGO’s than it is usually the case would have an ambition to take advantage of their access.

Rumors have been swarming concerning how many NGO/IGO delegates that would be admitted to the two last high level sessions taking place from tomorrow. The initial estimates were 1000 NGO’s during thursday and as little as 90 during friday! Recently the organizers have however following a lot of pressure, agreed to throw a bone to the civil society and has raised the amount of participants during friday to 500… While it is a considerably increase from 90, it is still a ridiculously low amount and does not reflect positively upon the willingness to listen to the civil society.

So the NGO and IGO representatives are slowly becoming an endangered species here in the Bella Center… One may say that the effects of climate change is apparent even in here!

This means that I at least will not have the opportunity to be present in the Bella Center from tomorrow and the day after. Considering that many of the ” meetings are taking place in secrecy anyways, it properly wont matter much anyways.

Let’s hope that the UN at least learns something from the organizational mess they have gotten themselves into during the last week of the conference and that the lack of respect for a NGO/IGO presence during the high level negotiations is not something that will be continued in future UN conference’s.

 Writing this the Danish PM Lars Loekke is trying to open the High Level Plenary, but Brazil, India, China, Ecuador and Sudan/G77 do not wish to proceed before the text from the AWG-LCA is on the table, and are very concerned about the planned tabling of a new Danish text.

 UN SG Ban Ki-Moon is also facing trouble in the corridors:

 Financial Times quoted by BBC:

“UN chief Ban Ki-moon suggests a climate change deal might not include a figure on financial aid for developing countries.”

 While in speech at COP15 Tuesday

“Financing will be key, particularly in helping the poorest countries. That is why we can welcome the emerging consensus among developed countries to provide approximately $10 billion dollars annually for the next three years to The Copenhagen Launch Fund. With this money, we can deliver real results: strengthen climate resilience; limit deforestation; jump-start; low emissions growth. But a fast start is just that, a start. $10 billion annually will not solve all our problems. Here in Copenhagen we must also address medium and long-term financing scaled up to needs. We cannot leave here without an understanding of how we will proceed on this vital question.”

 A text w.o. long-term financial aid is not an option.

Udtalelse fra FN-forbundets næstformand, Torleif Jonasson, i forbindelse med udelukkelsen af civilsamfundet fra COP15:

Så sent som lørdag gik op mod 100.000 mennesker fra hele verden på gaden her i København for at vise politikere og ministre, at vi ønsker en stærk og retfærdig klimaaftale. Connie Hedegaard tog som formand for forhandlingerne med slet skjult begejstring imod med ordene: ”Tak for Jeres skub og Jeres støtte.”  

Kun to dage senere meddeler UNFCCC, at antallet af civilsamfundets repræsentanter under klimaforhandlingernes slutløb denne uge vil blive reduceret til 1.000 torsdag, fredag til bare 90.  

Hvad det betyder i praksis er, at civilsamfundet – der i forvejen har haft svært ved at komme til orde op til og under klimaforhandlingerne – bliver henvist til anden række og de facto udelukkes fra at overvåge beslutningsprocessen og medvirke til et godt resultat. 

FN-forbundet er dybt forundret overfor dette træk fra UNFCCC’s side. Selvfølgelig skal der være plads til de mange stats- og regeringsledere, der kommer ind fra alle verdens hjørner for at stå på talerstolen. Men for en organisation, der bygger på dét fundament, der lyder ’We, the Peoples of the United Nations’ må og skal civilsamfundet inddrages!

Is Copenhagen the place where a global ambitious agreement on climate changes will be made or is it the place where all parties in the climate negotiations will agree that now is the time to act, but by the end of the day, they fail to agree on how to act upon climate changes in an ambitious manner? Day 1, week two – we are getting closer to the end of the conference and the question is how it all looks on Friday.

I was lucky to attend the side event today on “Greenland Ice Sheet – Melting snow and ice: Calls for Action”. Prominent people like Al Gore, Gro Harlem Brundtland, Danish Minister for Foreign Affairs, Per Stig Møller and two well known scientists Dorthe Dahl-Jensen and Bob Corell were among the speakers at the event. All the speakers at the event agreed that it is necessary to act now, and the findings presented at the event left the audience without a douth, that actions must be taken now. Recent findings on the smelting of the ice cap in Greenland shows that, apparently, the predictions from the IPCC report in 2007 have shown to be too modest. The ice is smelting with an alarming speed not seen before – 3-4 times quicker than previously predicted. According to Bob Corell a sea level rise of 1 meter, which can be a reality within the next 50-90 years will result in 145 million people having to move from their homes – they will be climate refugees. The ice in Greenland, on the North Pole and in Antarctica is getting smaller and thinner – and when the permafrost is melting, the global CO2 emissions will double, according to Al Gore. Furthermore, increased temperatures and less ice in the Himalayas greatly affects the 7 great rivers in Asia which supply water to 40 % of the world population.

No matter how you twist and turn it, the numbers from the scientists tell the story of how pressing it is to reach an ambitious agreement in Copenhagen. The question is if the leaders are ready to go all the way to make sure that we will not see the consequences of these predictions. Are we gaining momentum in Copenhagen or not?

It is difficult to chose. This morning I was split in my mind: should I go to DGI, where there are discussions more to my heart, or go to the BC (Bella Centre), where power, media and real things happen.
So I decided to take a round in the DGI a couple of hours, but ended up later in the BC. First I met our Brazilian WFUNA representative (the international politics professor from RIO), and he got me into a very well attended meeting on the international cooperation on the Congo basin (the third biggest rainforest in the world (no 1 Amazonos (Brazil), 2. Indonesia). There were quite a lot of African ministers – the Congo basin cooperation has 8-10 Sub-Saharan central African states and esp. Germany supports them – also the new German development minister spoke. But, but, but—it was in French. I tried for half an hour, but I had to give up – my French is not what it used to be- or maybe it has never really been there, – so I left my good friend, the Rio professor, who understood everything.

Then I attended a very interesting session given by the Bhutanese delegation on the concept of Gross National Happiness – how GNP with its one-dimensional reliance on material wealth was insufficient, so they told about how ecological sustainability; spiritual aspects; cultural and historical traditions of the country should be the cornerstone of measuring GNH (Gross National Happiness). They also told about the eco-policy of the country: The reliance on hydro-power;
that they have included in their constitution that 60% of the land should be covered with forests.

They were dressed in the national clothes, and their government minister in the panel was called his Excellency.

And after the 1,5 hours session the Bhutanese delegation gave a reception with good food and plenty of drinks.

So I left in good mood with a lot of papers and stuff I would probably not have time to read, but I will try my best.

Tusindvis af verdens borgere er rejst til København her i december for at lade deres stemme høre – i håbet om at netop deres stemme bliver hørt i de politiske forhandlinger, der foregår lige nu.

En god håndfuld af dem har vi haft på besøg her på FN-forbundet i denne uge. Heriblandt fra Finland, Brasilien, Tanzania og Indien, hvad der til tider har været ret underholdende for os her på sekretariatet. Eksempelvis at præsentere fænomenet æbleskiver for en meget skeptisk inder (der dog blev så overbevist om æbleskivens kvalitet, at hun fik en pose med hjem). Eller tanzanianeren, iklædt stor og farverig Manchester United-jakke og hue, der egentlig var pænt ligeglad med fodbold, men syntes, det var meget koldt i Danmark, og meget kan man sige om briterne, men de forstår sig på at lave vinterovertøj.

Men dét til en side, så står alvoren bag tal-legene og forhandlingsspillene i Bella Center lige pludseligt meget klar, når man sidder over for dem, der rent faktisk mærker klimaforandringerne i deres hverdag og ser, hvordan det landskab, de er vokset op med, ændres i takt med den globale opvarmning.

Der er brug for det etablerede diplomati, der i øjeblikket kører for fuldt blus lige her midt i København (selvom det er helt derude på Amager). Men der er sandelig også brug for stemmerne fra sidelinjen. Nogle gange tænker jeg, det ville være sundt for alle embedsmændene og deres ministre at komme lidt væk fra de bonede gulve og måske – oh ve – uden for murene? Måske de ville møde nogle af alle dem, der lever med konsekvenserne af klimaforandringerne i hverdagen? Måske en fair og ambitiøs klimaaftale så ville komme ét skridt tættere på?

All is not just meetings, unless you are in the specific text-negotiations. Might sound contradictory as the reason to meet at COP15 is to negotiate text. But COP15 is just so much more.

At the core you have the negotiators, who need to have prepared texts for the Ministers coming in during the weekend, who needs to have text ready for the Heads of States coming in Wednesday, who needs to have decisions ready for the World next Friday.

Surrounding them you have “the professional Civil Society” closely following the negotiations, knowing the subjects, the positions and the discussions, being ready with suggestions for solutions, and putting on pressure when things are about to go wrong. Also acting is the business and industry having their interests.

The next layer is the media observing and reporting – when there is no breaking news in the negotiations they’ll report on anything moving or dying, as long as they consider it being of public interest.

Then you find the “outsider” NGOs acting outside to the Bella Center, working with and involving greater constituencies, educating and interacting more closely with the general public, staging events and mobilising for action.

Whether being insider or outsider NGO you do also use the COP as an opportunity and a venue to network, establishing new or strengthening old contacts and networks, to share your knowledge and expertise, to participate in side-events learning things you maybe didn’t know, planning for the future where decisions taken and not taken in the Bella Center needs to be implemented.

And then there are the events and cultural stuff. Copenhagen is not only filled with activities closely related to the climate negotiations (like “Klimaforun‘09” in the DGI-byen, “Klima for Dummies” in Borups Højskole, “The Bottom Meeting” at Christiania). The COP is also utilised as an opportunity to frame or stage more general cultural activities, like “Hopenhagen” at the Town Hall Square. Tuesday afternoon I attended an event at the beautiful museum “Thorvaldsens”, where my youngest daughter and her choir presented Songs for the Earth. It is a big choir so the parents and relatives did create a crowd but apart from that not many ordinary people or COP-participants were present. I think too many things are getting the “climate-label” so people get tired of it all or stop noticing – or if they are in the process they don’t have time to attend.

The same evening we had our “get-together” reception at the UNA-office for participants from or friends of UNAs. A nice group turned up and we had a good opportunity to interact and get familiarised.

Wednesday some of the reception-participants had the opportunity to present their work in a side-event organised at the “Klimaforum’09” titled “Making marginalised voices heard in the UN climate process”. It was interesting to learn about the experiences of India, Brazil, Tanzania and Finland. Being a political scientist and keen observer of overall civil society involvement, I particularly appreciated the Finnish observations on the issue of participating not being the same as influencing (“Civil servants use these sometimes as synonyms; CSO participation is not an objective in itself (at least not for the NGOs); Representatives of NGOs see that it is not desirable to legitimate administration procedures with non-effective participation; Especially Sámi people are fed up with quasi-participation” Jenni Kauppila). Amongst the other interesting points raised was Tanzania quoting a local fisherman “What do I care about [abstract threats, i.e. Aids and Climate] when I can die tonight fishing?”.

One of the more entertaining events of COP15 is the daily presentation of the Fossil of the Day. The Fossil of the Day Award is given to the country or countries doing the most to obstruct progress in the global climate talks. The award is presented by the NGO group Climate Action Network, and the winner on the first day of COP15 was the Industrialized Countries. They received the award for coming to Copenhagen with a profound deficit of ambition for cutting carbon emissions and keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Ukraine received “the honour” of being Fossil of the Day on day 2. The honour was bestowed upon them because they have the single worst carbon emissions reduction target in the world: a -20% reduction from 1990 levels, which means a 75% increase from current levels. Congratulations to Ukraine!

Who will get it the next days? Wait and see… you can find the newest Fossil of the Day here

First time at a UN Climate Conference, and when I left late Tuesday afternoon from Bella Center, it was with a feeling, that I had just attended something very important. Thousands of people gathered in one place to discuss the climate – although with different agendas: people fighting for rights of indigenous people, people showing new climate friendly technologies and others ensuring, that the participants were entertained with happenings, where they showed their point of view on whatever topic they were interested in. But all were, in some way or another interested in the climate.

 My own interest, forestry, brought me to sessions about REDD – reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation; an initiative rewarding developing countries financially for avoiding deforestation and forest degradation. The statements from the countries were positive in regards to REDD, yet, as we all know, there is a long way from positive attitudes to a decision on REDD that has positive impacts on local forest dependent people in the developing countries. As a spokesperson from an organisation for indigenous people said: there is a need to involve indigenous people in the development of technical and implementation issues of REDD – otherwise the benefits from REDD will not reach this group of people. And although, statements from some of the countries mentioned involvement of forest dependent people in regard to REDD, only time will show, if the further development of REDD will become inclusive.

 My Climate Conference experiences in Bella center will continue next week, and until then I will join the rest of climate interested people in Copenhagen in some of the many other activities that are taking place these two weeks in Copenhagen. This Thursday I am involved in a mini climate conference (www.muncc.dk) with the Danish United Nations Association, which I am looking forward to.